Predicting future events has always been uncertain, but prediction market websites like NewsFutures.com have made betting on the news a viable–and often fun–activity for Web users.

Launched in 2000, the more than 15,000 active users of the French-based NewsFutures can buy and sell shares in markets set up so that people can bet on the probability of what is likely to happen in the future. Site users can bet on whether military action will occur against Iran this year, or whether or not Prince Albert of Monaco will marry before the summer of 2007.

The company’s CEO and co-founder, Emile Servan-Schreiber, 43, said he formulated the idea of NewsFutures after reading an article about so-called decision markets in a magazine.

“I was a journalist at the time and I thought: Wow, what a great way to involve the readers, to make them interact with the news rather than just read about it. What rich reader feedback we could get from a prediction market! Tell them the news of today and they’ll feedback their predictions about tomorrow’s news,” said Servan-Schreiber.

Initially partnered with USAToday.com, NewsFutures is now one of the most widely known news prediction market sites in the U.S., with two to three million hits per month, even though no real money is involved. Part of the fun in participating in NewsFutures is trying to raise the play-money to as high a total as possible, and becoming one of the top traders on the site.

“I admit, the TopTraders link was only an interesting feature at first, something I looked at and said, ‘Who are these people that have so much money,’” said user gobuckeyes, who wished to remain anonymous.

“Where it all changed for me, was when I hit the top one hundred one night. I only had my portfolio up to about $200,000 at the time but there, all of a sudden, was I at number ninety-eight. It seemed a whole new drive took over to try and stay there, and climb it.”

Even though there is no real money involved, users are able to trade in their play-money for personal prizes, such as gift certificates to Amazon.com, books, and DVD’s.

Gobuckeyes, a construction industry supplier in his mid-50s, prefers to use his play-money on charity auctions. He has contributed $90 to his chosen charities.

One of the most rewarding parts of the Web site for gobuckeyes is that it has allowed him to delve into topics that he would not normally be informed about, helping him to gain knowledge and learn.

“NewsFutures is so much more than the cursory glance one gets when seeing it as a substitute or distracting agent for those who like to gamble. There are plenty of pretend-gambling sites on the Web. NewsFutures is a nothing of the kind. It is a learning tool like no other I’ve seen,” said gobuckeyes.

NewsFutures combines personal knowledge with research and information aggregation so groups can assess the current information and collectively make decisions and predictions about what’s going to happen next in the news.

“This is a game of assessing the current probabilities and determining if the price is appropriate for the current probabilities. More ‘money’ is made by making that correct assessment and selling the shares that you managed to buy at a discount, based on your assessment, and immediately selling those shares at your assessed probabilities,” said site user and former admin, cujo, who wished to remain anonymous. “The whole concept of in-game continuous betting is that the probabilities change. That’s the fun of this game.”

Using information as currency and assessing probabilities for what is likely to happen in the future can sometimes lead to startlingly accurate predictions.

“The NewsFutures play-money marketplace is as accurate as real-money marketplaces like Tradesports. It is also more accurate than almost all individual ‘experts,'” said Servan-Schreiber.

But more than just forecast events, the prediction markets have other values as well.

“Phrasing possible outcomes and assigning probabilities to them is a major journalistic contribution of prediction markets. That’s at least as much a journalistic contribution as that of opinion polls,” said Servan-Schreiber. “Giving people reasons to care about what is happening in the world, as prediction markets do in their own interactive way, is a journalistic mission.”

For some people, NewsFutures is also just another way to pass the time.

“I do it for fun. It has the fun of betting sports, without losing real money. It’s a challenge,” said Darin Brock, 41, a hotel broker from Grapevine, Texas.

Brock has ranked first at the Web site twice in the last four years, and his goal is to return to the pole position rather than win prizes. The probability of that happening is yet to be seen, just like countless other events waiting to happen, and NewsFutures will be there to assess the possible outcomes.