“Emergency earthquake warning: seismic intensity lower-six. Twelve seconds, 11 seconds . . .” As speakers loudly relay the warning through the house, Venetian blinds rise in the living room, a gas gas stove switches itself off, the front door is unlocked with a sharp click and automatically propped open with a lever.

This show-house in a northern Tokyo suburb is one of several ongoing trials of earthquake warning technology in Japan. Set up by JEITA, the Japan Electronics and Information Technology Association, it uses information received over the Internet from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and their nationwide network of earthquake sensors. JMA’s computers analyze data on the first swift-traveling tremors that arrive from the epicenter of a major earthquake to predict where and with what strength the earthquake will strike.

The system can then produce a warning of a few seconds to as long as half a minute, which should be enough time to take minimum precautions to prevent serious injury, says Shinya Tsukada of the Seismological and Volcanological Department of JMA. “You can’t pack up your belongings and run away, but at least you might be able to get under the table.” In March, a JMA-hosted study group of researchers, business representatives and officials from public organizations, issued an interim report regarding the progress of such research and ways that it might be used.

Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the globe–20 percent of the world’s magnitude 6 and greater earthquakes occur here. Each year, there are more than a thousand earthquakes powerful enough to feel, and major disasters are frighteningly common. In 1995, Japan experienced its most destructive quake of the post-war period, the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake, which killed 6,435 people in and around the city of Kobe in central Japan. In October 2004, a large earthquake killed 51 people in the northern Japan prefecture of Niigata.

While virtually no part of Japan is safe from the risk of a major quake, particular attention is focused on the prospect of a major earthquake either in Tokyo, or in the Tokai area west of the capital. A recent government study simulated the consequences of a 7.3 magnitude quake under the north part of Tokyo Bay, a disaster smaller than the 1923 Tokyo earthquake that killed more than 100,000 people, but similar in size to the Kobe earthquake. The study estimated 11,000 deaths and economic damage reaching $955 billion (112 trillion yen) — 850,000 houses were destroyed outright and as many as 7 million people were forced to abandon their homes.

As researchers struggle to produce reliable results from long- and medium-term earthquake prediction systems, recent attention has concentrated on short-term warning systems such as the JMA’s. By using its own network of 200 sensor stations and several hundred set up by other research bodies, the agency can calculate the epicenter of a large quake in as little as two seconds. Although the idea of earthquake warning systems is not particularly new–there are systems in use in California and in Mexico–the system now being developed in Japan promises to be a nationwide network and make use of a range of Internet and mobile communications technology.

Since 2004, the JMA has been transmitting information about imminent earthquakes to select companies, schools and public bodies in a number of trials. A crucial factor is the distance between the epicenter of the earthquake and the area that receives the warning, said Tsukada. “In a really big earthquake, the system may not be useful for people directly above the epicenter, but it may help people further away.”

That principle was clearly demonstrated by two major earthquakes that occurred after the JMA started testing their system. In October 2004, the Niigata area of central Japan was hit by a 6.8-magnitude earthquake. Although the JMA’s system pinpointed the earthquake within seconds, the worst-hit areas were directly above the epicenter, and there was no time to issue a warning. Then, in August of last year, an earthquake hit the northern Japanese prefecture of Miyagi. This time, because the epicenter was 60 miles away in the ocean, the system was able to provide a 16-second warning before tremors reached the heavily populated city of Sendai. The earthquake measured an upper-5 on the Japanese scale of earthquake intensity in Sendai, enough to topple furniture and cause moderate damage to buildings.

“People’s attitudes changed completely after the Miyagi earthquake,” said Tsukada. “They realized that we can really use this technology.” In Tokyo at the time, Tsukada received an automatic cell phone text-message from the system when the earthquake was detected, and then felt the weakened tremors a minute later.

Yukio Fujinawa is the managing director of Real-Time Earthquake Information Consortium (REIC), an NGO that is looking at how information from the JMA’s warning system can be put to practical use. “There are two basic uses for the information,” he said, “one is to stop machines, etc., the other is to warn people.”

Setting up automatic systems to stop assembly lines, halt elevators or alert doctors about to start medical operations, is relatively simple, he said. Reaching a consensus on the second use, how or whether to alert the general public is more difficult. One problem is false alarms; out of 400 alerts since the testing began two years ago, approximately 30 have been mistakes. Another is the possibility of panic. REIC’s Fujinawa suggests a solution could be to introduce the technology gradually. He proposes installing systems in schools and teaching children how to respond to the warnings from a young age. REIC estimates the cost at around $17,000 (2 million yen) for each of Japan’s 55,000 elementary and middle schools.

Warnings might also be issued through the media, much the same way that earthquake reports are broadcast at present. Every year, an automated system passes reports of 200 to 300 earthquakes to the Japanese media, and they are normally broadcast within 2 minutes of the earthquake occurring. Alternatively, Japan’s extensive network of public announcement speaker systems could be put to use. According to REIC, two-thirds of local governments already have suitable systems in place.

One company, the Tokyo start-up 3Soft Ltd., is now developing the world’s first portable home earthquake warning system. They have named it “Digital Catfish,” after the catfish’s legendary tendency to show strange behavior immediately before earthquakes. The PDA-sized receiver picks up wireless earthquake warning transmissions and relays them to smaller speakers placed around a home, or to other safety devices such as those in the JEITA show-house. 3Soft officials hope to price a home-use system at less than $850 (100,000 yen), although they say it is unlikely that the government will allow individual households to buy the product in the near future.

“It’s still not clear whether or not the average household will be able to use our device,” said CEO Hiroyuki Iue, adding that their first customers will probably be businesses or public organizations. Beginning in June, organizations will start applying to the JMA for permission to use the earthquake warning data. 3Soft hopes to start selling the device later this year.

Researchers are also looking at how mobile technology could be used to transmit earthquake warnings. Cell phones already play an important role in the immediate aftermath of earthquakes — though not without problems. “When an earthquake happens cell phones become difficult to use,” said Akira Matsuki, a senior manager at Japanese carrier NTT DoCoMo. “In previous large earthquakes the usage has exceeded capacity by several times to tens of times.” Setting up cell phone capacity to cope with the spikes in usage following a major earthquake or other disaster is prohibitively expensive. Instead, Japan’s major carriers have set up mobile-Internet bulletin board systems to let users leave messages that can be accessed by concerned friends and relatives.

“No matter where you are, if you have a mobile [phone], even though there may be restrictions on voice calls, you still have access to the Internet,” said Matthew Nicholson, Media Relations manager at Vodafone K.K. The systems also link to each other so that messages can be picked up across different carriers. Vodafone’s system has been put into action four times since it was initiated in April last year. Following the Miyagi earthquake in August, 23,000 people checked messages on the site.

A long-term, and somewhat more difficult challenge, is to enable cell phones to relay JMA earthquake warning messages. According to NTT DoCoMo’s Matsuki, developing such a system could both help convey warnings of a coming quake and help cope with the flood of messages afterwards. “We are examining using existing mobile phone technology to send large numbers of messages to users simultaneously,” said Matsuki.

Although he said he couldn’t divulge details of the research, Matsuki noted that a system is unlikely to use present e-mail messages, which take too long to open and read. He also pointed to the need for a standardized system across carriers, and careful consideration of the consequences of the technology. For instance, what would happen if drivers on a freeway decided to stop suddenly when they received an earthquake warning?

The government’s study group on the emergency warning system is due to produce its final report some time between September and December this year. The report is expected to include a road map for implementing earthquake-warning technology. But until consensus is reached on how exactly to use the information, however, it looks like the warning service will only be available to select groups chosen by the authorities. Debate among study group members continues. According to participants, some have raised the question of whether it is fair only to provide warnings of impending catastrophes to those who pay, others have questioned the responsibility of issuing warnings that might be false alarms or could potentially cause mass panic.

“The technology is ready,” said the JMA’s Tsukada. “The argument now is about how to give the information to the public.”

Speaking at the Foreign Correspondent’s Club of Japan this January, Tokyo University professor and well-known gender-rights advocate Chizuko Ueno accused the Tokyo Metropolitan Government of censorship.

Last July, Professor Ueno was chosen by a citizens’ group in the Greater Tokyo district of Kokubunji as the first speaker in a series of lectures on human rights; the events were to be sponsored by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.
But according to the group, Tokyo officials objected to the choice of Ueno because she might use the phrase “gender-free” – a poorly defined term originally intended to mean free from sexual bias. The citizen’s group refused to find another speaker and instead cancelled the series of events.

Ueno lambasted what she termed a repression of free speech: “I have strong objections to any official agencies banning the use of any words in public, unless they are discriminatory expressions or hate speech.” She also claimed that the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s (TMG) move was part of a pattern of similar actions. “I am afraid it may be part of an ongoing backlash by neo-nationalists.”

“Gender-free” is an imported English phrase that has been used in Japan since the mid-1990s. Some progressive teachers and local education authorities have used the phrase to promote liberal sex education, and the mixed listing of boys and girls on school roll calls. The latter is contentious in Japan where traditionally boys’ names are read out first.

Originally a near synonym to gender equality, it has become highly controversial. Ueno accused conservatives of deliberately hijacking the phrase and distorting its meaning. She noted that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has a special body set up to oppose gender-free education. The “Extreme Sex-Education Gender-Free Education Survey Project Team” was set up in March last year and is chaired by Shinzo Abe, Chief Cabinet Secretary. The grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, a class A war criminal and later prime minister, Abe is widely predicted by political commentators to be the next premier.

The project team’s Web page criticizes “out of control education” that “denies differences between the sexes.” It cites examples of older elementary school pupils forced to stay overnight in the same room, and includes photos of anatomically correct dolls the site says were used in Tokyo schools “to teach sex acts.” A fax number is given at the bottom of the page with request: “Everyone, please send us examples of inappropriate education taking place near you.” The project team says it has produced a 100-page report put together from 3,500 messages it has received.

In Tokyo, the phrase “gender-free” has been officially banned by the Metropolitan Board of Education since August 2004 and cannot be used by instructors in schools. “The phrase gender-free is not properly defined, so it is likely to cause confusion,” explained the board’s Shinichi Egami. He added that the board could not support Ueno as a speaker for the Kokubunji lectures in case she used the phrase. “We can’t support a lecture that conflicts with the policy of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.”

The term gender-free is also criticized in the Office of Gender Equality’s recent revision to the “Basic Plan for Gender Equality.” The document includes examples of “extreme” education similar to those on the LDP’s Web site. Professor Ueno suggests there is a clash between progressives and conservatives in the party, pointing out that the current Minister for Gender Equality, Kuniko Inoguchi, is known as a progressive advocate of gender equality, while her deputy, Eriko Yamatani, is a much more conservative politician.

Sophia University Professor Inoguchi herself hinted at conflict within the LDP when she spoke at a briefing for foreign journalists this January. She first praised reform of Japan’s economic structure, then went on: “Now it is time for social structure. This is more complicated, more delicate; I have to listen to many traditional voices. And if you go too far, you lose everything.”

One of the loudest traditional voices is Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, ex-novelist and a right-wing firebrand. He is known abroad also for his 1989 book “The Japan that Can Say No,” co-written with then Sony Chairman Akio Morita. In a 2001 interview with women’s magazine Shukan Josei he described “old women” as “the worst evil and malignant being that civilization has produced,” adding that “it is said that old women who live after their reproductive function are useless and are committing a sin.”

On Jan. 27, six women’s groups presented a petition with more than 1,800 signatures to both Ishihara and the Metropolitan Bureau of Education protesting the cancellation of Ueno’s speech. But speaking at his regular press briefing, the governor denied that Ueno was censored. “The city government has no recollection of making such a rule,” he said. He also criticized the phrase gender-free. “The phrase itself is sloppy and vague. We are Japanese, so we don’t use English.”

Ueno, however, is adamant that the Tokyo government’s actions amounted to censorship. “If it were any private organization, it is perfectly all right to have any particular criteria to choose a speaker,” she said. “But the TMG is a public body supported by tax payers . . . [this] is a political intervention by power, which is to be called censorship.”

Lawrence Repeta, a professor at Omiya Law School, compared Ueno’s case to more than 200 teachers in Japan who have been disciplined for refusing to stand for the flag and sing Japan’s national anthem during graduation ceremonies. “The government is forcing them to stand even though it conflicts with [the teachers’] personal beliefs and causes them personal anguish,” said Repeta. “This is worse than censorship. It is a form of behavior control.”

Authorities have also targeted NGO activists. In February 2004, three anti-war activists were arrested and imprisoned for 75 days after distributing pamphlets at a residential complex for Self-Defense Force personnel in the Tokyo suburb of Tachikawa. Amnesty International took up their case, calling them “prisoners of conscience.” Eventually the charges against them were rejected by the Tokyo High Court.

The fringes of the Japanese press are feeling the heat too. In July last year, the editor of a small Kobe scandal magazine, Kami no Bakudan (Paper Bomb), was arrested. After being charged with defamation against Aruze Corp., a manufacturer of Pachinko gambling machines, editor Toshiyasu Matsuoka was held in custody for 6 months and released on bail Jan. 20.

These apparent attacks on free speech coincide with a rightward shift in the Japanese political climate. Koizumi’s controversial visits to the Yasukuni shrine, which honors 14 class A war criminals along with Japan’s other war dead, have angered Japan’s neighbors. Tokyo Gov. Ishihara and Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe have also been to pay their respects at the shrine, and Foreign Minister Taro Aso recently called for the Japanese emperor to visit. Relations with Korea and China have been further strained by the publication of revisionist history textbooks that gloss over Japan’s wartime actions in Asia.
Yet even a political shift shouldn’t change constitutional rights, stressed Repeta. “Maybe you have political leaders who are very nationalistic, and they are popular, they are elected . . . but that doesn’t change the constitution,” he said. “The constitution guarantees freedom of expression, and it guarantees the freedom to hold personal beliefs to all people.”

The gender-free censorship controversy comes at a time when gender issues are already in the spotlight. In the government’s revision to the 2000 Basic Plan for Gender Equality, work-place equality was a prominent topic — the lack of which is being blamed for Japan’s extremely low birthrate and shrinking population. If the baby bust continues, the UN has predicted there could 20 million fewer people in Japan by 2050.

Japanese women are being forced to choose between starting a family and pursuing their careers — and many plump for the latter. Although Japan has a law saying that firms are obliged to give one year of maternity leave, according to the Gender Equality Bureau, 70 percent of women are effectively forced to resign from work when they get pregnant. Barely 1 in 5 women take maternity leave, and despite being legally entitled to paternity leave, virtually no men (0.56 percent) take time off.

Many women report being told to quit or being bullied into leaving when they become pregnant. One young mother, Miyako (who asked that we not her last name), took maternity leave from her job at a trading company shortly before her son was born, but she doesn’t know yet if she will go back to work or not. “My boss told me, ‘Your position might not still be available when you come back.’” Despite that, she says that her company is relatively considerate to female employees. She said she has heard of expectant mothers made ill by the stress at other companies.

The controversy over the term “gender-free” seems to have become a distraction from the real issues of discrimination Japanese women face. If so, perhaps some of the controversy could be avoided by a change in terminology. Professor Ueno herself has said that despite Tokyo officials’ fears, she doesn’t generally use the term gender-free because it is not in currency outside Japan. “I have an alternative suggestion,” said Ueno, “to substitute the words ‘gender free’ with ‘gender equality’. What’s wrong with that?”