An Asahi Newspaper editorial called the recent Japanese general election campaign “one of the most interesting elections ever.” Certainly, few polls in memory have so gripped the public and media.
When Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi took a deeply divided Liberal Democratic Party into the snap election, many believed it was political suicide. Koizumi staked his political life and his legacy on the poll. In any event, “lionheart” Koizumi’s brinkmanship paid off. The Sept. 11 poll delivered the ruling party a historic landslide victory. As Gerald Curtis, an expert in Japanese politics at Columbia University, commented shortly after the election: “This was not a victory of the LDP, this was a victory of Koizumi.”
Ofer Feldman, a professor at Doshisha University, credits much of Koizumi’s success to his astute (and sometimes forceful) handling of the media. He says that Koizumi is a new kind of politician for a new kind of Japanese political culture – more a leader in the Western style than the old consensus-building traditional Japanese politician. He is a leader who “has a dialogue with the people and the ability to influence them.”
Some commentators have spoken of a watershed in Japanese politics, yet Feldman is skeptical. He doesn’t think the LDP’s grassroots political machine has changed much; “pork-barrel politics will probably continue forever.” And he points out that the prime minster’s phenomenal success may be a double-edged sword for the party. Koizumi has shown himself to be a master of political theater. When the time comes to choose a new leader, he will be a tough act to follow.
Israeli-born Ofer Feldman is a Professor of Political Process in the Faculty of Policy Studies at Doshisha University. He is the author of “Talking Politics in Japan Today,” “The Japanese Political Personality” and “Politics and the News Media in Japan.”
JMR: Koizumi very successfully focused the election on one issue – postal-reform. Why couldn’t the Democratic Party broaden the debate?
Ofer Feldman: If there was effective journalism [in Japan], they would have forced the ruling party to put more issues on the agenda. The media here play according to rules dictated by politicians.
Koizumi was very clever. The electorate, generally speaking, thinks in a very simple way. If you give them two issues, it is too complicated for them. That was the mistake of the Democratic Party. Koizumi said that there is only one issue – postal reform. You give the people a simple sentence, one issue and you will win the election.
JMR: Could last month’s election be described as Japan’s first presidential style contest?
OF: It could. It was Koizumi against Okada. If you look at the posters and television commercials, you had not five different parties, but five different leaders.
JMR: What did Okada and the Democratic Party of Japan do wrong to lose so catastrophically?
OF: Okada was criticized even within his own party. He didn’t know how to use the media, or how to project his opinions as the opposition leader. He couldn’t compete with Koizumi. He gave the appearance of being [a] serious politician without a sense of humor.
He was not as charismatic as Koizumi and didn’t give the impression that he was the right person to lead Japan now. Maybe 10 or 15 years ago he could have succeeded on a local level, but he isn’t a national leader.
JMR: Is Koizumi a new kind of Japanese leader?
OF: Koizumi is the product of the “presidentialization” of the prime-ministership. In the 1990s there were structural changes within Japanese politics, and changes in political culture. The people’s attitude towards leadership changed. They became ready to accept goal-orientated leaders rather than old-fashioned consensus-building leaders.
They were looking for somebody who will stand in front of the press and say, “I will do it. I don’t care what everybody thinks.” This was exactly the situation that paved the way for Koizumi.
JMR: How much of Koizumi’s success was down to the way he used the media?
OF: Everyone is talking about how Koizumi manipulated the media using sound bites. He creates catch-phrase politics, one-phrase politics. He decides the content and length of the phrases himself. He decides when he is going to meet the media. He asks them for the questions they will ask in advance, he talks for 4-5 minutes and then he leaves.
If there was real media here, they would say, “You are not going to decide what you are going to tell us, and we are not going to give you the questions in advance.” I’ve spoken with political reporters, and they hate it. But this is how they make their living so they don’t want to criticize it. If you talk to the editors, they say that this is not the way that a leader is supposed to behave in democracy; in a democracy you are supposed to answer questions that reporters give you.
JMR: How unusual was the tactic of bringing in “assassins” from outside to stand against the postal rebels?
OF: It is not completely new. In the Upper House they are traditionally called “talento giin” (TV personality Diet members). But in this case they are not just celebrities. If you look at those who were mobilized by the LDP to run against the rebels, they are professionals; talented people not “tarento.”
It’s an excellent thing. Traditionally, politicians had to have a degree in law, now they are coming from various areas of life. Now you can have a debate in the Diet. Koizumi picked them the same way that he selected his ministers in the first administration – one by one, not by considering the strengths of the LDP factions. He decided who he wanted to work with. He broke the rules.
JMR: Why did the most famous assassin, Internet entrepreneur Horie Takafumi, lose?
OF: His opponent Shizuka Kamei was known in the electoral district. He started as a local politician and he has worked there for the last 30 years. He has his organization of supporters. He contributes to the community. They talk about three things in Japan: “Jiban” (political base) “Kanban” (signpost) and “Kaban” (bag). Kaban is money.
Kamei also has personality; he knows how to perform in front of political supporters and the TV cameras. One TV program followed Kamei for several days. He appeared lecturing in a remote community in Hiroshima, his electoral district. When one person in the audience complained about the way the Construction Ministry handled a certain problem near their home, Kamei immediately instructed his secretary to call a high-ranking official in the ministry. Kamei spoke to the Ministry in front of the cameras and asked them to solve the problem as soon as possible.
Horie can’t do that. You have to have contacts and, of course, the ability to perform. Horie has the money so he can play politics. He’s a bad example of someone who uses their money to entertain themselves by running in an election.
JMR: Has Japanese politics really changed at the local level?
OF: My students and I conducted research during the recent election campaign in various ways. When we went to candidates’ speeches, we heard the same old style of politics. We heard candidates promise: “I will do something for the community. Please trust me. I will help you to build bridges here, establish schools here.” Candidates, especially LDP candidates, spoke about how they can contribute to the community – and then also mentioned Koizumi’s reform, political style and vision.
One female LDP candidate we got on video lectured for about 10 to 20 minutes, mostly about the resemblance between her name “Kyoko” and the city “Kyoto.” At the end she insisted that she was going to shake hands with everyone who came to the meeting.
Pork-barrel politics will probably continue forever. This is the old style of electioneering. You vote for the candidate whose face you saw, whose hand you touched. She talked a little in general about politics, but there was one key word in her speech, and in that of all the other LDP candidates – “Koizumi.” All the candidates used his reputation and plans to get elected.
JMR: Koizumi is due to finish his tenure as prime minister next September. Will the media participate in the debate to choose his successor?
OF: The media are very timid; they never choose the prime minister in Japan. They can criticize the prime minister, but they can’t choose him. They see their role more as influencing public opinion after the decision.
Also, since the 1990s, due to various factors, including the change in the election law and Koizumi’s own actions, LDP factions haven’t played their traditional role in the selection of future leaders. They have lost power and just become “study groups” to discuss policy.
At the moment, there isn’t even one likely candidate. Go to Nagatacho and ask political reporters, “Who do you think will be the next prime minister” and they say: “We don’t know.” It is hard to predict who will take the lead after Koizumi, although several names appear in the media from time to time. This has never happened in the history of modern Japanese politics because everyone knew that sooner or later one of the LDP faction leaders would become prime minister.
JMR: Will the LDP look for another charismatic and media-friendly leader like Koizumi?
OF: Yes, but the question is, will they find one? And the answer is no, because Koizumi is unique. He came at a time when the people needed a person like him, who can stand before the public and media and promise reform. Of course, he achieves that partly by manipulating the media.
He is not a family man, he’s divorced. Look at it from a psychological viewpoint. He is talking to the public like they are his wife and children. He’s the first politician like that in Japan. The press calls him “henjin” (weirdo). He is the strange politician, unpredictable. Reporters and politicians are always looking for his next surprise move. That’s how he dominates the political stage so adeptly.
JMR: Are you optimistic for reform in Japan?
OF: Postal reform will definitely take place. As for other reform, that’s a good question. Koizumi says, “This is the beginning,” but in the last four years there was no reform. Even his reform of the highway authorities failed.
People were surprised by this election; they weren’t expecting the LDP to win by such a large margin. Even the LDP politicians were surprised. Until this election we could have talked about two main parties in Japan, but now we are talking again about one.
As long as Koizumi remains in power things will remain the same. Next September the LDP will probably decide to try and extend his tenure as party president. But Koizumi is full of surprises so perhaps he will just retire. An even bigger, more interesting surprise will be if he quits the LDP to establish his own party – but that’s all speculation.
As for the LDP, they got so many this time that in the next election they will probably lose seats. In order to mobilize the vote they will need a charismatic candidate, maybe even a woman – someone who can talk to the public the way Koizumi does. Do they have such a candidate? I doubt it. Things may change as soon as Koizumi quits.








