As the final countdown to January 1, 2000 looms, the term 'Y2K' is now widely used to refer to a variety of threats: not only the so-called 'millennium bug,' but computer viruses, hacker attacks, and planned violence loosely linked to the computer crisis as an opportune moment to foment or capitalize on chaos. 'Millennial terrorism' has featured prominently in the news even as our public officials continue to assure us that governmental systems are adequately prepared for the date rollover. What are the risks of terrorist strikes against government, corporate, and civilian targets? Will the year 2000 rollover increase our vulnerability to violent attacks--or will terrorist groups (whether at home or abroad) seize on Y2K as an opportunistic moment to wreak havoc in a perverse bid for attention and sympathy? What steps have law enforcement agencies taken to prevent millennial violence?

The recent arrest by the FBI of two men charged with plotting a bomb attack against a propane storage facility near Sacramento is one frightening indication that the millennium may pose special problems for law enforcement. The Sacramento Bee reported that the men 'were members of a San Joaquin County militia group and had been stockpiling large amounts of illegal weapons.' According to unnamed government officials, their plot 'was designed to exploit Y2K fears among the nation's hate groups.' The San Francisco Examiner article on the case reports that the 'Sacramento arrests may be just the first signs of coming millennial terrorism,' but gives little hard information about the beliefs or motivations of the accused. Indictments are imminent, and more information will presumably be forthcoming.

But there are indications that Americans may have more to worry about than our own home-grown fanatics. A worldwide advisory warning issued by the State Department to traveling U.S. citizens urged caution, claiming that credible information exists of 'terrorist threats aimed at Americans traveling abroad for millennial celebrations.' The Y2K link in this story may be spurious. The chairman of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, Rep. Porter Goss, is quoted as saying: 'Terrorists love to exploit opportunity. And an opportunity of confusion, which is what Y2K's definition may be, would be perfect for them.' Time online and other sources reported that the threats are linked to radical Saudi terrorist Osama Bin Laden, asking melodramatically 'Is Bin Laden Plotting a Y2K Catastrophe?' A December 14 UPI story reports the arrest of 'members of a suspected terrorist cell...in an unidentified Middle Eastern country, accused of planning attacks against Americans....[T]he alleged attack was intended to coincide with New Year's celebrations overseas.' As this column is being written, reports of another arrest of a suspected terrorist on the US-Canadian border are beginning to dribble over the newswires. If these reports are credible, then Americans may have one more reason to stay home and avoid large millennium festivities. In the event of any terrorist acts on or around the New Year, the linkage to Y2K may become more evident, if only because significant damage to infrastructure and communications occurring around this time is likely to be attributed, at least initially, to Y2K-related computer failures.

The threat of Y2K terror may be overblown. Certainly one can find anti-government rants that predict Y2K-related violence; one online author with obvious militia sympathies predicts that computer failures will lead directly to rioting, insurrections, and eventual civil war. There's no indication in this essay of any threat to initiate these activities, but it's evidence that some folks, at least, are anticipating widespread chaos as a result of computer problems. On the other hand, terrorists planning to take direct action are unlikely to post their plans to a Web site.

In any case, the federal government will be ready: a late-breaking news story posted on Maranatha Christian Journal (but attributed to Baptist Press) quotes Mark Wolfson, a spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, as follows: 'For the weekend beginning New Year's Eve, we have prepared 50 emergency declarations in case there is any scenario in which a local area's problems cannot be handled by local and state emergency personnel and a request for a presidential declaration of emergency is requested by a governor.' (An earlier and decidedly more paranoid version of this story appeared on WorldNet Daily under the apt title 'Panic in the Year Zero,' claiming that 'President Clinton has already made plans to declare a national emergency because of expected disruptions caused by the Y2K computer problem.')

Just how severe are the local problems anticipated by law enforcement agencies? Is an emergency of this magnitude possible? A recent story on 'Y2K riot fears' in the San Francisco Examiner reported that many businesses in the Bay Area are so panicked about being targeted in public disturbances relating to New Year celebrations that local firms providing security services are fully booked for the night of Dec. 31-Jan. 1, even at triple the normal per-hour charges. A story on CNN.com (forwarded through the Militia of Montana email list) quotes Capt. Joseph Horton of the California National Guard on the Guard's possible deployment, in the event that the rent-a-cops and regular police riot control measures aren't enough to control millennial party-goers and potential looters: 'Right now, the National Guard is preparing for Y2K in the eventuality we would have to back up law enforcement because of lights going out or a civil disturbance.' It seems, therefore, that law enforcement is gearing up for millennial rioting as well as millennial terrorism, and that their preparations are being carefully watched by the groups being monitored.

Apart from the breaking news on foiled terrorist plots, planning for civil disturbances, and the international travel advisory, however, the most significant story of the past few months relating to law enforcement and the millennium is the controversy over the FBI's 'Project Megiddo' report. Named after the mountain in Israel that gives us our word 'Armageddon' (Har-Megiddo or Mount of Megiddo), the report was authored by FBI analysts of the Domestic Terrorism Analysis Unit and distributed to local law enforcement officials throughout the United States in early November 1999. Noting that 'Many extremist individuals and groups place some significance on the next millennium, and as such it will present challenges to law enforcement at many levels,' the report goes on to offer an overview of different fringe religions, leaders, militia groups, and beliefs 'relating to the Apocalypse or?the New World Order (NWO) conspiracy theory.' With reference to the Y2K computer crisis, the report uses a 1996 report from the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 to reach some troubling conclusions:

It's interesting to note that the Senate report that the FBI's authors rely on in their projections of possible Y2K outcomes is three and a half years old. One can only hope that state and local government benefits offices are more prepared than the FBI thinks they are. The possibilities anticipated in the Project Megiddo report are, in fact, not that different from the civil disorders anticipated by those in the militia/patriot movement.

Y2K Media Watch sources in the FBI have informed us that the report was not originally intended for public distribution. When news of the report was leaked to the USA Today reporter who broke the story, the Bureau decided to make the report available to the media and general public. (The original conclusion of the report, with specific recommendations to law enforcement personnel, does not appear in the redacted version on the FBI Website.) It's difficult to imagine, however, how the FBI ever thought that a report such as this, with a title almost calculated to titillate the often-paranoid imagination of apocalyptic believers, could ever have been distributed to thousands of local law enforcement officials and still remain a secret. And it should come as no surprise that some of the groups and individuals described in the report should attack the FBI for misrepresentation and bad intentions.

A November 19 Washington Times article reports that 'A coalition of conservative groups has asked Congress to investigate an FBI report on the threat of domestic terrorism at the turn of the millennium, saying the report paints all Christians as 'extremists.'' In a letter to Congressional leaders, the heads of 32 groups, including Paul Weyrich of Coalitions for America and Phyllis Schlafly of the Eagle Forum, demanded an investigation of the FBI, saying that the report is biased against Christians and conservatives: 'There is no reference whatsoever to the political Left. One walks away with the impression that members of the Religious Right in America are lunatics who are a danger to society.' So far, there is no indication that Congress will launch such an investigation; but a review of material currently available on the Web indicates that the report has stirred up extremist groups like a stick in a hornet's nest. For example, J.J. Johnson, a self-styled militia leader whose following is unclear, blasted the FBI with a stream of invective that turned the tables by accusing the government of planning violence:

'Let us first state that your project will fail (It has been written). It is failing already. In fact, your report, Project Megiddo has been our greatest recruitment asset since April 19, 1993. Project Megiddo is being distributed (in it's entirety) to priests, ministers, pastors, and subsequently, their congregations. Many have prepared. Many more will. They will prepare and stand against you because you have proven yourselves to be the enemy to Christian people beyond any reasonable doubt, and therefore the enemy to the vast majority of the people of this nation?. To the remainder of you (and your minions), we fully expect violence to occur around Y2K, but we expect it to come from you. Yes, we fully expect you to initiate force against us or some other innocent bystanders. You will then, of course blame us. You will demonize us further. There will be calls for our incarceration. Our weapons. Even our deaths. We expect all of this. We have made peace with our Lord, and ourselves on this issue. You will then attempt to carry out the wishes of a government gone mad.'

Another extremist Website put up a document which has since made its rounds on Usenet newsgroups, which satirized the FBI by analyzing it as an extreme 'pro-government cult,' with a high potential for violence. The 'Project FBI Paranoia' report mocked the language of the FBI's Megiddo document: 'The FBI terrorist group poses a threat to the individual liberties of all Americans. With a long history of ignoring the Bill of Rights, there is a legitimate reason to believe that they will continue to pose a threat in the year 2000 and beyond.' In an anonymous post to the alt.conspiracy newsgroup titled 'Pagans, Witches and Project Megiddo,' one writer went so far as to claim that the report was biased in favor of witches and neo-pagans. For their part, the neo-pagan Odinists and the Asatru alliance attacked the FBI for having the nerve to lump them together in the report with fundamentalist Christians with whom they have nothing in common.

The rhetoric of these responses does seem overheated. Without criticizing the FBI, who would surely be condemned for ignoring the threat of millennial violence if they had not analyzed the situation with some version of a Megiddo report, one must ask whether they had any idea that the groups they are monitoring are monitoring them as well. Given the paranoia surrounding the millennium and Y2K, officials and law enforcement agencies need to think very hard about how their statements and actions will be perceived by others as the New Year approaches.

Stephen O'Leary

For some perspectives on these recent events, and some insightful (if slightly dated) discussions of the threat of millennial violence nd perceptions of Y2K by far-right militia groups, two essays are particularly useful. 'Millennium Y2Kaos' appeared in the Fall 1998 Intelligence Report published by the Southern Poverty Law Center, a well-known anti-militia watchdog group. Another assessment can be found in Chip Berlet's essay, 'Y2K and Millennial Pinball.' A researcher with Political Research Associates in Somerville, MA, an organization that monitors the extreme right, Berlet provides a thoughtful overview of the way Y2K fears have linked right-wing Christian groups with secular survivalists and channeled the energies of apocalyptic believers and militia sympathizers. Do note, however, that the John Birch Society and others have attacked the FBI report on the grounds that it draws on information provided by both SPLC and PRA, and that these groups are regarded by conservatives as far-left radicals. So it's a good idea to read everyone's viewpoint in an attempt to find balance. With that in mind, we provide links below to some of the most notable responses to the FBI report.

News stories about Project Megiddo, and responses by both conservative and neo-pagan groups, can be found at the CESNUR (Center for Study of New Religions) Website.

Christian Alert Network analysis of Project Megiddo Report

Web Today analyzes the coverage of Project Megiddo and asks 'Is it possible that the FBI is attempting to incite a race war?'

Notorious Posse Comitatus minister James P. Wickstrom discusses the FBI's report and concludes that it signals that the New World Order conspiracy is about to make its move. An audio link to Pastor Wickstrom's radio program on Project Megiddo on the 'End Day Prophecy Hour can be found at: http://www.posse-comitatus.org

The John Birch Society's New American offers a predictably conspiratorial view of the origins of Project Megiddo.