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Tech Trends for 2001

While Year 2000 may not have lived up to its name in new technologies, it definitely laid the groundwork for a blockbuster 2001 in the computer and tech worlds.

Which products and technologies have the potential to turn into the latest ?must-have? gadgets or ?hot? computing trends?

From new equipment and software to continuations of products and tech developments from last year, I will offer up some technologies and trends that online editors and reporters might want to keep an eye on in 2001.

Putting some bite in Bluetooth

Touted for years running as a universal standard for local wireless communication, Bluetooth has felt more like vaporware.

Despite the backing of impressive industry heavyweights -- from Intel, Microsoft, and IBM to Motorola, 3Com and Lucent -- the wireless standard has been slow to reach the marketplace (at least in the U.S.).

But the end of 2000 saw widespread rollout of hubs and adapters, if not actual devices. The buzz this year has shifted a bit, with Bluetooth being pushed as a local wireless network for desktops, as well as a standard for laptops, PDAs, cell phones and other devices to communicate in wireless harmony.

Bluetooth hubs and notebook cards have finally begun showing up from many vendors, and Bluetooth was one of the big technologies at Comdex in November and the Consumer Electronics Show last month. But once again we are left waiting for Bluetooth support in actual peripherals and devices.

Sure, many companies feature Bluetooth in their rhetoric, visions of the future and demos. But for all the talk of consumer products like wireless headset for cell phones and communication between computers and hand-held devices, Bluetooth is still limited to hubs and basic networking capabilities.

When will Bluetooth connections be as ubiquitous as USB, available on almost any piece of hardware?

While Bluetooth?s key benefit to many lies in wireless communication between small, portable devices, it appears its adoption will start with pricier, larger devices and work its way down.

One vendor at Fall Comdex explained that the price of adding Bluetooth to products has kept it out of smaller (and arguably more useful) devices -- i.e., you will be seeing Bluetooth-compatible printers long before mice and keyboards.

But keep an eye on the wireless standard in the next six months, because a good rush of Bluetooth-enabled products could really kick-start its North American adoption.

LCDs versus CRTs

As LCD monitors (those lightweight, thin, flat-screen displays) continue to come down in price, they have become a viable display alternative for desktop computers. At the same time, 19-inch and 21-inch traditional CRT monitors have dropped even faster.

A quick look shows 15-inch LCDs down to $600, but 19-inch CRTs are as low as $300 with many 21-inch ones under $700.

Many PC manufacturers have built computer lines around 14-inch and 15-inch LCD displays, including many of the compact desktops with high ?cool? factors. But 15 inches isn?t very satisfying for many serious computing consumers. And the larger LCDs are pretty pricey.

LCD screens are convenient because of their smaller footprints and weight. They can be a boon to space-challenged desks (especially with their small depth), and are light enough to mount on extension arms for a ?swing-out? monitor.

True flat screens (and their Plasma big brothers) are also approaching convergence with traditional television display technology. Although priced very high, the SyncMaster 240T by Samsung offers a 24-inch LCD that can display HDTV, computer output and traditional television/broadcast output, or any combination of them. So you could have a video signal playing side-by-side with your computer desktop on the same monitor -- for around $5000.

LCD downsides include inferior text display (compared to CRT), traditionally lower refresh rates at high resolutions, some restrictions on screen size (many do not work as well in anything but their native resolutions), and of course, the higher price.

The latter is what still drives the market in most instances, and not just in terms of general price but the exorbitant cost of large LCDs. Many computer professionals are used to not just larger monitors (19 to 21-inch), but in many cases multiple large monitors. And LCDs hit the stratosphere for the average consumer at those sizes -- try $2,500 to $4,000 compared to CRTs for under $1,000.

Traditional CRT monitors have dropped so much in price these days that what used to buy a 17-inch monitor three years ago can buy a good 19 inches or bargain 21 inches of screen real estate.

And if you don?t mind spending more serious money on a CRT, the Sony Multiscan FW900 offers 24 inches (!!!) of display for $2,400.

CRT downsides include weight -- most 21-inch monitors are around 70 pounds -- and deep chassis that can take up four square-feet of desk space.

For now, most consumers will find the price/performance of CRTs to be more valuable than the technological allure of true flat screens. But tech writers should keep an eye on LCDs, as they are poised to make serious inroads into the mainstream computer market.

All that traditional CRT monitors can really offer is lower prices, whereas LCD manufacturers have been coming up with innovative features and diverse display options (how about a pull-up, swing-out display for your desk?). Once mainstream furniture manufacturers start coming up with new mounting options, LCDs could see a surge in the computer market.

But what about general displays, you ask, like those cool flatscreens in the Philips commercials where people are watching TV on their ceiling? Those are plasma displays, which traditionally do not offer the high resolutions of LCDs (or CRTs), and still cost $5,000 to $20,000. But when their prices come down, and resolutions go up, we could see even more powerful multimedia convergence -- but that?s at least a couple of years away.

Who needs TIVO?

While the electronics community waits for digital TV (HDTV or other flavors) to finally become a reality, the digital video recorder (DVR) market has been quietly heating up.

At the Consumer Electronics Show last month, next generation DVRs were all the rage. Imagine taping HDTV programs in all their fidelity, with copyright concerns taken care of (pleasing some, upsetting others).

But beneath the high-end level of DVRs, video card manufacturers are flying under the radar of many news outlets.

And why shouldn?t they? After all, devices like TIVO are just MPEG-2 video encoder cards and 14 to 60GB hard drives in a box. Hmm, and computers already have hard drives?

If you have a video encoder card and a hard drive, then all you need is some special software and you?ve got your own PC-based TIVO. So now most video encoder card manufacturers are pointing out that their bundled software can allow a PC to act as ?personal VCRs? too -- taping programs and live TV (digitizing and saving to the hard drive) and allowing different, customized playback options.

While the whole ?enhanced TV? fad fell on its face (most consumers would rather just watch their TV than their computer), hardware companies seemed convinced this might have a better chance of catching on with the same consumers who might buy a TIVO or ReplayTV unit.

Computer makers have tried making PCs household appliances with limited success. Remember Gateway?s ?Destination PC? that comes with a large TV instead of a monitor? How about those notebooks (such as the Fujitsu C Series) that can act as CD players and alarm clocks when they are closed (not a bad travel idea)?

But with additional functionality beyond that of TIVO and its ilk, this latest try has the potential to catch on with some consumers.

Whereas with the current stand-alone digital recorders, you cannot copy or exchange programs and movies (there is purposefully no output port), video encoder vendors have stressed a potential ?community? aspect. But this has also opened up a can of copyright worms that TIVO and ReplayTV have avoided.

Normal consumers may not be ready yet to watch TV on their computers (notice how many people with DVD-equipped computers still buy stand-alone units for their TVs), but you never know. And if so, this could make great strides toward making the PC more of a household, family appliance.

Quick Takes

Video Compression

Media streaming technologies such as Apple?s Quicktime, RealNetwork?s RealVideo and Microsoft?s Windows Media continually release better and more efficient video compression codecs.

With each release, they trump each other by producing streamed video that fit into smaller file sizes with higher quality resolutions (or at least higher clarity and less artifacting).

But with the incredible strides that have been made in video compression in the last five years, video-on-demand is still not a realistic goal for most home users -- including those with so-called broadband connections.

Sometimes it is latency in your Internet Service Provider?s network, sometimes general Net lag, and sometimes the servers you are requesting video from cannot push packets to you fast enough. But regardless of the cause, true streamed video at decent resolutions is not a reality for most.

To some extent people say this every year, but 2001 could finally mark significant enough improvements in video compression technology to allow streaming video to the (broadband) masses.

Now, I?m talking about those with DSL and cable connections, but those with reasonably priced Internet connections may finally be able to see 12 to 15 frames-per-second video at sizes bigger than a postage stamp.

It may be one of the three mainstream video streaming companies or a third-party who makes a big codec breakthrough, but true motion video could arrive on a desktop near you this year.

Iomega PhotoShow

Iomega?s ZIP drives are a de-facto standard for transferring and exchanging large files (not withstanding the continuing popularity of CD-Rs). Now, they are looking to expand into digital photography in a big way.

Iomega?s Photoshow initiative features a special ZIP drive with built-in photo editing capabilities that you hook up directly to a TV. Basically, you transfer digital images from your camera to the drive (it reads Compact Flash and SmartMedia too), and then you edit them (or if you want, view them) through a TV.

By putting photo-editing software into the device, it acts as both a media drive and a stand-alone photo editing station.

Non-gaming set-top boxes have not caught on the way some thought (and gambled) they would, but Iomega is hoping photo editing and viewing might have enough allure for home users to hook their devices up to TVs. And Iomega has a track record (having successfully displaced SyQuest as the removable drive king) that argues for keeping an eye on their new drive.

Webcams a-go-go?

Webcams are dirt cheap, and their popularity continues to grow.

And with the increased penetration of broadband into homes (or at least reasonably fast Internet connections), more and more consumers have Net connections that can seamlessly handle the (relatively) small video packets Webcams produce. In addition, support for them is built into more and more mainstream computer applications, from Web browser plug-ins to chat and collaborative apps.

Remember those ?videophones of the future? from the Jetsons? While the exorbitant price of large plasma screens might hinder a true realization of that vision, many enjoy that kind of communication through computer-based Webcams.

But beyond videophones, Webcams have superceded Web pages in many online communities. Instead of putting up sites about themselves, many simply connect a cam to let people into their interest -- and their lives.

While Webcams and other streamed video may be hot in the Internet pornography industry, they are also huge in many areas of the hardcore computer and Internet communities.

So much so that -- without necessarily featuring nudity -- there are hundreds of portal Web sites that charge for access to Webcams on which ?normal? people go about their everyday lives, including live shots of empty rooms when they are out.

DVD burners

As CD burners became default components in many computers in 2000, will DVD burners take over their dominance? Having appeared to overcome film piracy concerns by the entertainment industry, manufacturers are poised to roll out affordable (or at least reasonably priced) DVD burners that write media that can be read by consumer stand-alone DVD decks.

While re-writeable DVD burners are still few and far between (and quite expensive), DVD-R burners are available from many mainstream companies like Philips and Pioneer, for around $700.

Yes, CD burners had been gaining in popularity the past four years, but the huge boost in sales coincided with the MP3 music craze (and burning MP3s to CD).

Computer-based video editing is poised to add that kind of momentum behind DVD burners. If it catches on in the consumer market (who hasn?t seen those Apple home video editing commercials with Jeff Goldblum?), many users will want to create media to easily distribute them.

 

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