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Post-Mortem: The Bug Appears to Be Beaten
Y2K POST-MORTEM

Contributed by Ben Berkowitz

A $10 million hoax bid for the legendary domain name year2000.com. A news column running a spoof piece on technological advances in the year 1900 and blaming it on a bug glitch. A government official in Slovenia forced to resign for making too big a deal of the bug. Is this the legacy of Y2K? Has the bug become the new Comet Kohoutek, a widely-expected major event that turned into nothing but a fizzle?

Consider the following: one organization, International Data Corp., has already accused the U.S. government of overspending on bug remediation by as much as $41 billion. John Koskinen, the Chair of the President's Council on the Year 2000 Conversion, has allowed that there was overspending, perhaps as much as $10 billion. In Great Britain, IT consultant and Cambridge lecturer Ross Anderson said 'company bosses should be sacked.' The CIO at 3Com, Inc. went so far as to say on January 2 that spending to eliminate the bug was 'out of proportion by orders of magnitude.' This statement was made only hours after it became apparent that the bug's bite would be relatively minor; however, it underscores a growing sentiment.

There is no denying that the bug caused some difficulties around the world. Among the larger of the problems attributed to bug glitches: The failure of two kidney dialysis machines in Scotland A Canadian police computer that read suspect birthdates as 1900 Delayed flights because of a part failure in an FAA computer (which the FAA still denies was a bug glitch) The failure of data transmission capabilities between the Oak Ridge nuclear weapons plant in Tennessee and the Department of Energy A federal building in Nebraska that had security doors fly open A Department of Defense spy satellite that went incommunicado for two hours after the GMT rollover $700,000 in tax payments posted a day late by the Federal Reserve (out of a daily $15 billion in transactions) Reported but unidentified glitches at nuclear plants in Spain and in medical equipment in Malaysia A five-day suspension in the ATF's Firearm Licensing System because of a database failure 500 ATM cards rendered unreadable at certain facilities in Sacramento Primary air traffic control systems knocked off-line for three hours in New Zealand One failed heater at an apartment in South Korea

The bottom line, however, is that the problem was not that bad. Thus far, nothing has happened that would profoundly impact anyone's lives in a negative way for a prolonged period of time. A survey by CMP Media of 1,750 IT professionals and consumers shows that 63 percent believe that Y2K was mostly hype. However, the same survey indicated that 25 percent of respondents suffered a glitch at work; 16 percent of those glitches led to service interruptions. Some 22 percent of respondents also said that they had more Y2K work to do.

Nonetheless, the respondents apparently considered Y2K a non-event compared to what many feared it would be. Some people are even gloating over the fact that nothing happened, since they have been saying all along that the bug would come and go with only minor hiccups.

In fact, there are many people still out there who columnist Declan McCullough calls 'unrepentent' about the potential impact of the bug. Y2K doom-and-gloom prophets like Gary North and Michael Hyatt still maintain on their websites that all is not over yet, and the bug may still take a tremendous bite out of society.

But for every prophet still holding on to their Y2K beliefs, there are many more mea culpas. Deutsche Bank chief economist Dr. Ed Yardeni, world-famous for his prediction of a 70 percent chance of recession this year, now flatly admits he was wrong. (Some, however, are concerned by the near-precipitous drop in the NASDAQ since Monday). Well-known consultant Ed Yourdon, author of Time Bomb 2000, wrote in the early hours of January 1 that while the potential for problems was not completely past, his level of optimism that all would be well was growing daily.

Mike Adams, author/owner of the Y2K Newswire website, which leaned more and more toward the preparedness / alarm-sounding end of the spectrum as Jan. 1 grew closer, wrote days after the new year that he believed the bug was real, but that it had been completely conquered, and all would be well. Canadian consultant Peter de Jager, a co-owner of year2000.com, has even received a death threat from someone angry at him for making a big deal of the bug. Noted Y2K commentator Chuck Lanza nows suggests that the bug 'may have been a myth.'

The only salvation thus far for the doomsayers is in an unscientific experiment run by one state in which three completely unremediated systems were left running. All three experienced a total system crash and became unusable.

Overseas, much of the blame is placed on the United States and Western Europe. Average citizens and technology pros alike attribute the billions of dollars in Y2K spending to American and European paranoia. While many experts here say that the money spent overseas will end up being a windfall (because of all the associated modernization), many in foreign countries still believe money was wasted. The Juventud Rebelde (Rebel Youth) newspaper of Cuba said over the weekend that Y2K was a capitalist plot designed to bankrupt small socialist nations.

So what now? Do Koskinen et. al move to a deserted isle and rest for a year? Koskinen himself says there is a use for technological monitoring centers like the one he has been running in D.C. Other individuals say that they will look for other positions inside their firms; companies that provided fixes say they will move into other areas of software technology. The Federal Reserve's emergency funds are being returned because they were unneeded. Shelters and food banks are asking for Y2K leftovers. Suicide hotlines are on guard in case people grow depressed because the new year was such a non-event (parties aside).

It is impossible, less than one week into the new year, to pronounce the bug dead and gone. Challenges still remain, such as once-a-month systems that have not been run yet, and the leap year problem on Feb. 29. So far, however, the bug appears to have been squashed on the shoe of technology.

 

News briefs from around the world give you the latest developments that affect online journalism.
Ben Berkowitz
hoax bid
year2000.com
running a spoof piece
forced to resign
accused
said
went so far as to say
failure
read suspect birthdates
because of a part failure
failure
fly open
went incommunicado
posted a day late
Reported but unidentified
five-day suspension
rendered unreadable
knocked off-line
failed heater
shows
many feared it would be
gloating
calls 'unrepentent'
Gary North
Michael Hyatt
flatly admits
drop
Ed Yourdon
Y2K Newswire
wrote
year2000.com
received a death threat
suggests
run by one state
attribute
says
look for other positions
returned
asking for Y2K leftovers
on guard
Challenges
leap year problem