Contributed by Ben Berkowitz

New Year's is a traditional travel time. People often think nothing of hopping on a plane and flying hither and thither to celebrate the New Year in style with friends and loved ones. But this year, many people are thinking twice about their flying plans.

Among the most popular Y2K disaster scenarios is the one where the clock strikes midnight and airplanes begin to fall from the sky. Gloom and doom abounds as airlines all throughout the world simply stop moving forward at midnight, and plow nose-down into the ground, ocean, etc. The reality, however, is that of all the Y2K disaster forecasts, this one is perhaps the least likely.

As if to prove that nothing will happen, executives from the FAA, British Airways, and other major global aviation concerns have publicly announced plans to be airborne at midnight on January 1. As FAA administrator Jane Garvey says on the agency's Y2K website, 'Aviation Safety will not be compromised on January 1, 2000, or any other day.'

According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), 75% of the 20 major U.S. airports handling international traffic were to be ready by the end of September, and all were slated to be complaint by November. In its status report of September 29, the ICAO reported that the nation's air traffic control system was fully compliant. The airlines themselves were lagging somewhat; only 56% of the nine airlines handling international travelers were scheduled for September compliance; total compliance is not expected until December. However, there is no indication in the ICAO report that this will affect travel per se.

Though the odds of airplanes raining from the sky are infintesimal, disruptions within the sector still may occur. As with other industries, there are concerns with data processing and communications viability. Sector-specific concerns include the accuracy of radar data, flight data processing, and ground errors like ticketing and baggage. Little reporting has been done about such possible failures, which seem minor but in the bigger picture may end up being the sector's biggest Y2K-ache. Already the FAA has reported one Y2K failure; its national automated travel system failed when the systen rolled over to Fiscal Year 2000 on October 1, but was quickly repaired.

The flying public, despite alternative media reports, seems to be fairly confident about traveling this New Year's. An Air Transport Association survey from early September showed that only 9% of respondents were changing travel plans for the new year, according to a Reuters report from Sept. 11. However, that same report also indicated that the government's General Accounting Office (GAO) is not as optimistic. GAO IT expert Joel Willemssen testified to Congress last month that the FAA needed to do more testing of systems while they were interlinked, to ensure that the system is functioning properly as a whole.

Foreign governments are taking a mixture of precautions to defend against Y2K problems. The South China Morning Post reported on October 18 that the government has increased the gap between take-offs from 10 minutes to 15, just in case something goes wrong. The ICAO is now implementing a plan to assist India with becoming compliant, as there are only two reasonably modern control centers in India (at Delhi and Mumbai). Russia reports that it is mostly compliant. Overall, foreign nations seem to be taking the stance that they will be ready.

However, there are less positive notes about foreign Y2K travel. The Department of Transportation's International Civil Aviation Y2K Information Review for Russia says that at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow, 'With the exception of public safety and emergency systems, all technical areas are being addressed.' That everything but public safety and emergency systems is being remediated is somewhat puzzling, but no explanation is offered. The inspector general of the Department of Transportation, Kenneth Mead, suggested in Congressional testimony last month that the Clinton Administration should seriously consider not letting American carriers fly on January 1 to countries that have not demonstrated compliance. One foreign carrier, Air France, is now reporting that it will fly a sharply reduced schedule on January 1, because customer demand has dropped over Y2K fears.

Aviation - both domestic and international - is a complex business, and as such, the industry has to be on its toes at all times. This constant guarding against all contingencies may help soften the blow of Y2K; it is almost as though a measure of readiness was built in to the system. With the industry being so important to so many people for so many different reasons, the public scrutiny has naturally been higher for aviation than it has for sectors like education and health care.

Though the FAA has made great strides in compliance efforts, questions still abound about the readiness of American aviation. Nagging concerns persist about the quality (as opposed to quantity) of remediative work performed by the agency. A timeline compiled by the Y2K alternative media website y2knewswire.com shows that a number of people who deal directly, on a daily basis, with FAA systems are worried about shoddy work that the agency may be doing. Questions persist about air traffic control computers, and new equipment that the FAA has installed with supposedly minimal testing.

GAO's Joel Willemssen has been particularly hard on the FAA, accusing it of rushing compliance measures into the field, and being overly rosy in its assessment and compliance timetable. Sens. Bennett (R-UT) and Dodd (D-CT) have introduced a bill that would allow the FAA to ground carriers who do not answer Y2K readiness questionnaires. Nonetheless, there are still no major indications of potential service disruptions January 1.

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Government Links

Sector Report on Transportation Section of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion Website. It lists government and industry links, as well as publications and articles about transportation.

Senate Y2K Committee Webpage-Transportation This is the transportation section of the Senate Special Committee on the Y2K Technology Problem Webpage. It contains quotes and testimony from a September 10, 1998 hearing, 'Transportation and Y2K: Can We Get There From Here?'

U.S. Department of Transportation Y2K Website This site divides information into different sectors: air, rail, highways, urban, waterways, and hazardous materials transportation. The site also serves as a clearinghouse of information regarding domestic and international transportation issues.

Federal Aviation Administration Year 2000 Website This site contains a news link, a diagram explaining the FAA's five-phase repair approach, and testing information. Industry Links

Year 2000 Website of the International Air Transport Association This site contains information of the IATA's year 2000 project as well as a detailed description of compliance standards as set by the British Standards Institution committee and information on the General Services Administration's Year 2000 Warranty Clause.

Y2K Readiness Disclosure Links This site contains links to the Y2K pages of major avionics manufacturers, detailing the compliance status of their various systems.