The people who don’t want articles to be written, who don’t want people to know about the bad things they have done… if they have this law, they can easily have us arrested as criminals at any time.”

The object of freelance journalist Katsuhisa Miyake’s concern is a conspiracy bill now being debated in the Japanese Diet. He believes that the law, which would make conspiracy to commit any of 619 different crimes an offence, could used to obstruct the work of investigative journalists in Japan.

Miyake has reason to be wary. In 2003 he was sued by Takefuji over articles he wrote on the consumer loan company for weekly magazines. He lost and was ordered to pay 110 million yen [935,000 dollars]. It was several years before Miyake could overturn the ruling on appeal. “It was preposterous. I couldn’t pay it. I would have gone bankrupt.”

He fears that the law could make it easier for large companies and politicians to intimidate investigative journalists through the threat of arrest. “Even the Diet representatives themselves who are debating the conspiracy bill don’t know what it is for,” he says, arguing that its main aim is simply to increase police power. “If the police or prosecutors decide to arrest someone, this law will make it extremely easy for them to do so.”

The bill was first introduced to the Japanese Diet in 2003 to ratify Japan’s signing of the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime. “It is Japan’s duty to ratify the treaty,” stresses Judicial Affairs Committee member and vocal supporter of the bill, Katsuei Hirasawa. He says that the law would be a powerful tool to fight against organized crime in Japan and abroad. Having spent over 25 years working in Japan’s Police Agency, he also believes that a conspiracy law is needed to strengthen police powers and protect the rights of victims. “[Opponents to the law] are saying you should crack down on crime after it has happened. It is too late then.”

Despite the backing of a large Diet majority from Prime Minister Koizumi‘s landslide victory in last September’s election, the bill has been twice rejected and revised. Now it has been postponed until the next Diet session. The delay and revisions were prompted by strenuous objections by lawyers, the Japanese press and opposition parties.

Lawyer and opponent of the bill Yuichi Kaido says that the concept of conspiracy is largely absent from Japanese law, restricted to only the most serious crimes. Unlike in the United States or the United Kingdom, where conspiracy laws have a long history, he says, Japanese law is closer to French or German law. Police can typically only make arrests after a crime has actually happened. “Japanese people can’t understand the concept of issuing punishment even though no crime has yet been committed,” he says.

The original draft of the bill made members of any “group” subject to arrest for conspiracy. Critics expressed concern that the law could be used against NGOs or unions. Although the bill has since been revised to apply specifically to groups with a criminal purpose, Kaido argues that the definition is still too vague. “It is the police who will decide whether or not a group is a criminal group,” he says. He is also concerned that once a member of an otherwise innocent organization was arrested, the group would be de facto classified as criminal.

Kaido notes that government officials have said little about how evidence of conspiracy will be collected. Wire-tapping, heavy-handed interrogation and tip-offs are likely tools for the police, he argues. Even conspiracy members who later change their minds will still be subject to arrest; only conspiracy members who go the police will be treated leniently.

The threat of arrest is a powerful tool for intimidation because once arrested, suspects have few rights, says Kaido. “For 23 days they can interrogate a suspect day and night. In a very serious case the interrogation can continue for 10 or 12 hours every day,” he says. Bail is rarely granted. “Almost everyone confesses to the Japanese police.” Until recently, interrogations were unrecorded, and even now prosecutors can decide when or when not to record. There are also persistent allegations of torture, says Kaido. “If you look at the totality of criminal cases, torture is very rare—but it is also rare for people to deny the charges. Among those cases, torture is not uncommon.”

Former National Police Agency official Hirasawa emphatically rejects the Japan Federation of Bar Associations’ arguments. “[Their] opposition to the bill is absolutely groundless and mistaken. They haven’t studied the bill,” he says. “They are just doing their best to protect the human rights of offenders. They have no interest in the rights of victims.”

To the charge that the law could be used to intimidate NGOs, unions or journalists, he says only groups whose purpose was crime would be targeted. “Why would the law to apply to journalists? It would be inconceivable for journalists to be targeted by the law; they are not a criminal group. If their purpose was reporting, the law wouldn’t apply.”

He also argues that Japanese police have far less power than their foreign equivalents and have to be sure of a conviction before making arrests. “In Japan, 99.97 percent of people are found guilty in court after they are arrested,” he points out. “Take a look at America, Britain, Europe – it is 60 or 70 percent at most. You can easily see that foreign police are making more wrongful arrests.”

Opposition party, the Social Democratic Party of Japan is against the conspiracy bill. “There is no need to destroy Japan’s system of criminal law and create a conspiracy law,” says leader and former lawyer Mizuho Fukushima. She compares the anti-conspiracy bill to the science fiction film “Minority Report” in which Tom Cruise’s character is arrested for a crime he has yet to commit. “It won’t really be to fight against organized crime groups,” she says. “There is a high probability that it will be used against NGOs, unions, and infringe on various kinds of freedom of expression.”

She fears the law could be used to stifle opposition to right-wing projects, including reform of the peace constitution, a new education law to promote patriotism and expansion of the U.S. military bases in Japan. “The right to freedom of expression to protest against the [Iraq] war is being severely curtailed,” Fukushima says, pointing to the arrest of the “Tachikawa three,” peace activists who were arrested for distributing anti-war leaflets to the mail boxes of a Self Defense Forces housing unit. “This law could be a tool to further suppress anti-war freedom of speech,” she says.

Earlier in June, several hundred people gathered in Hibiya Park in Tokyo to demonstrate against the bill. The meeting, where Diet member Fukushima also spoke, was held a stone’s throw from the Ministry of Justice and the National Police Agency. The gathering included trade union representatives, peace activists and consumer groups.

Freelance journalist Hitomi Nishimura was at the meeting to represent “Opinion Makers Against the Conspiracy Law,” a group of journalists, writers, broadcasters and bloggers. The group has produced a DVD, a series of downloadable movies and an anti-conspiracy law blog that gets 1,500 hits a day.

“Journalists who report on those in power won’t be able to do their jobs,” says Nishimura. She suggests that without the support of large media organizations, the threat of arrest would be enough deter freelance journalists from investigating the powerful. If they are arrested, the loss of weeks of pay, whether or not charges are brought, could be disastrous. And the same applies to small magazine publishers. Last July the publisher of a scandal magazine, “Kami no Bakudan,” was arrested and charged with defamation. The magazine had published a series of articles on Aruze Corporation, a pachinko gambling machine maker. The publisher was released more than 6 months later. The magazine alleges ties between the company and the local police.

Another member of the group, freelancer Yu Terasawa says that he has particular reason to be worried about the law. “I write about illegal police activities,” he says. “If I tried to get incriminating internal documents through an intermediary, I could be arrested for conspiracy to theft.” Unlike even a defamation prosecution, the police could take action before an article was researched, never mind published. He points out that there is no independent police watch-dog in Japan, and he fears that the law would make it even easier for the police to impede investigation by freelance reporters.

Economics journalist Ryuji Shinohara notes a vast difference in the position of freelance journalists and those working for large media organizations. “Politicians are more afraid of freelancers who earn 3 million yen a year than big media journalists who earn 30 million,” he says. Japan’s press club system means that mainstream media journalists can’t rock the boat because they risk the very real threat of being denied access to sources. He argues that it is up to Japan’s freelancers to provide independent reporting – something that would be made even more difficult by the conspiracy law. “The main newspapers have their own influence with the police. It’s the small publishers and freelancers who will have problems.”

Ironically, even when “Opinion Makers Against the Conspiracy Law” attempted to attend Diet deliberations on the conspiracy bill they bumped up against all too familiar obstructions. On arriving at the Diet Judicial Affairs Committee, they were unable to get press seats, as those were reserved for the press club members.

Despite the bill’s postponement, given the strength of the ruling coalition majority, commentators expect it to pass sooner or later. If that happens, freelance journalists as well as NGOs and activists will have a nervous wait to see how the new law is applied. Many argue that they have little reason to trust the authorities. A recent editorial in the Asahi Shimbun echoed their concerns: “We cannot deny that distrust of police and the court system underlies the public’s anxieties regarding the conspiracy bill.

Satsuki Katayama, a newly elected, high-profile member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), sat with grinning TV celebrities on a Sunday morning talk show. She held a conversation without much expression, but appeared to be relaxed during the one-hour program.

“Itsumitemo Haran Banjo,” a national program of the Nippon Television Network Corporation (NTV), focuses on celebrity profiles, looking back on a star’s past. The title translates to: “Whenever you see it, it’s a roller-coaster life.” The program has featured a number of politicians as guests, according to the network.

Prime Minister Koizumi’s LDP had a landslide victory in the general election for the House of Representatives last September. Katayama was one of the party’s first-time female candidates who was extensively covered by the media. After the race, former Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa attributed the victory to media coverage – what critics called a “feeding frenzy” – during his appearance on a national political talk show. Such major media as NTV still follow Katayama, a former bureaucrat at the Finance Ministry, who apparently distances herself from other fresh-faced politicians.

The NTV talk show emphasized Katayama’s intelligence and lauded her victory as “outstanding.” It was a de facto victory even before election day. The LDP placed her at the top of the list of proportional representation candidates.

In a society in which many people try to maintain smooth relations and avoid confrontations, a talk show host of a program seldom throws hard questions to a guest, nodding in agreement with the TV personality.

Moreover, in a voice-over narration, the program dwelled on Katayama’s “beauty,” explaining Katayama was once Miss University of Tokyo and Miss Finance Ministry. She was described as a “beautiful fighter who possesses unparalleled brain power,” and as a “Madonna of Reform.” (“Madonna” in Japanese means “an admirable, beautiful lady.”) She did not appear embarrassed by such comments and remained impassive. While Americans
would find these remarks frivolous or even sexist, many Japanese viewers regard them as compliments.

In addition, Norio Fukutome, the program’s soft-spoken host, compared Katayama with a certain former British prime minister and asked her, “It is a matter of time until you will become the Japanese [Margaret] Thatcher, isn’t it?”

While opposition party members believed the program was unfair in Katayama’s case, more politicians from both ruling and opposition parties seem to believe that getting their faces on a TV program – whether it is a serious political talk show, tabloid program or even quiz show – is very important. They can cash in through appearing on a TV show since the exposure makes them better known to many Japanese, probably the world’s most avid TV watchers.

Yukio Hatoyama, who is now a secretary general of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), appeared on a tabloid TV program with a couple of comedians last year, in which Mr. Hatoyama invited them to his palatial residence in a well-heeled community in Tokyo. Mr. Hatoyama was not only playing with them, including throwing a football, but also trying to sell his wife’s cookbooks on the air.

Meanwhile, more TV celebrities, including some comedians, are becoming commentators or even anchors on television, voicing their opinions on a broad range of issues from entertainment and gruesome crimes to education and politics. What’s more troubling, experts said, many of them appear in commercials as well.

Lassalle Ishi, whose real name is Akio Ishii, was an anchorman for Tokyo Broadcasting System (TBS) until March, while he also appeared in ALICO Japan commercials. ALICO Japan is a branch office of American Life Insurance Company of Wilmington, Del. During the TBS news program, Ishii predicted a possible face-off between first lady Laura Bush and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. He added, “They are very beautiful, aren’t they?”

Japan Internet News CEO Ken Takeuchi, who was an Asahi Newspaper editorial board member and also served as mayor of Kamakura near Tokyo, said television networks already relinquished journalism.

“News programs were turned into entertainment programs with TV celebrities (as commentators) for news,” said Takeuchi, whose company launched Japan’s first serious alternative online newspaper, Jan Jan (Japan Alternative News for Justice and New Cultures) three years ago.

TV celebrities “make comments on various topics. But how can they be so sure? They have no hands-on experience or studies on a specific issue like social ones,” said Nobuhiko Suto, a former member of the House of Representative from DPJ, who was a political science professor at Tokai University. “Then they change their opinions in order to have mass appeal. So considering how we can form sound public opinion, they have a destructive impact.”

Apparently responding to mounting criticism of media coverage, “News 23,” the major nightly news program of TBS, hosted a public debate during the show. A couple of comedians were even invited to such a supposedly serious discussion, along with two newly elected LDP lawmakers, including Katayama. Critics and opposition members were not invited.

Takaaki Hattori, a media law professor at Rikkyo University in Tokyo, agreed that politics is treated as material for entertainment programs these days and such programs have had political implications. But that lighter brand of coverage, including recent reports on several proposed laws such as an amendment to the Fundamental Law of Education, could help make more people aware and ignite debates, he said.

The ruling bloc of the LDP and New Komeito attempted to pass the proposed laws without much debate, opposition members said. But they are likely to be postponed.

“Since the media have an impact on the public, what issues they cover and how they cover them makes a big difference,” said Hattori.

The emergence of celebrity commentators aggravates a long-standing problem in the nation’s journalism, critics said. The mainstream media have long been criticized for their symbiotic relationship with authority figures through the press club system. By hiring celebrities, the media “more often fail to raise issues and become unable to search for the truth and to have balanced coverage, which means they are easily manipulated by those in power,” said Kenichi Asano, a professor of journalism at Doshisha University in Kyoto.

Journalists, as well as many in the public, however, are not aware of such criticism in a country where a deeply rooted journalistic tradition like that of the United States does not exist. The media also lack self-criticism, experts pointed out.

Takeuchi of Japan Internet News added that the mainstream media “got into a situation where they place ratings above anything else, which means they make advertisements the highest priority.”

Other critics echo Takeuchi’s concerns. Minoru Morita, a long-time political analyst in Tokyo, said since Koizumi took office five years ago, advertising giants have exerted more influence over media coverage than ever.

Those who work for the major media “are telling me that an advertising giant, namely Dentsu Inc., has become more powerful than ever and that they are scared of the company rather than the prime minister’s office. They said the company will immediately cancel advertisements [if something happens],” said Morita. “The advertising giant has flexed its political muscle.”

Yasuhiro Nakasone is a former Japanese prime minister who served from 1982 to 1987 and had amicable relations with late U.S. President Ronald Reagan. He was considered to be relatively skilled in media management.

The 88-year-old former premier, looking back on politics and journalism when he was a prime minister, said, “Nowadays, both politicians and journalists lack substance. They are apt to focus on shallow events that have little significance.”

In an era when television has enormous influence over politics, Nakasone said a politician’s image on TV is important, to some extent, but not one of the most important qualifications.

“We can compare a politician to a tree. A tree has flowers and branches, but its most essential part is its trunk. ‘Perfomance’ may be represented by the leaves and flowers, but it is the trunk that produces them,” he said emphatically.

“So, as long as one is preoccupied by leaves and flowers, I would say that further growth as a politician is necessary. Appearing on tabloid TV shows rarely leads to greatness.”

Nakasone added the public would also shy away from such politicians.

“When it comes to the prime minister, people focus on the trunk and roots, not just the leaves and the flowers. The public already has the ability to distinguish between the substance and ‘performance’ of politicians, at least to a certain degree. It is the media – its commercialism—that caricatures politics. Politicians must be wary of this and not allow themselves to succumb to this commercialism.”

While both Nakasone and Koizumi have similarities in their effective use of the media, the key difference between the periods of the two leaders in terms of media coverage is whether or not there are some people in the media who are critical of a prime minister, said Morita.

“While more journalists supported Mr. Nakasone [when he was a prime minister], there were still those who criticized what he did. So there was always a lot of tension between reporters and politicians and also among reporters,” recalled Morita. However, those who cover Koizumi “are competing to flatter him. It is ugly journalism. There is no one in the media who is critical of what Mr. Koizumi has done. Critics in the media were purged.”

Morita, the author of “All-Round Criticism of Koizumi Politics,” is no exception. He was a regular TV commentator for national news programs. His
appearances on TV have dwindled since Koizumi took office. TV staff members confided to him the pressure from the Prime Minister’s office.

“One TV staff member said to me apologetically, ‘Mr. Morita, I like you. But if I continued to work with you, my job would be on the line. I have a family to feed,'” Morita said.

“Emergency earthquake warning: seismic intensity lower-six. Twelve seconds, 11 seconds . . .” As speakers loudly relay the warning through the house, Venetian blinds rise in the living room, a gas gas stove switches itself off, the front door is unlocked with a sharp click and automatically propped open with a lever.

This show-house in a northern Tokyo suburb is one of several ongoing trials of earthquake warning technology in Japan. Set up by JEITA, the Japan Electronics and Information Technology Association, it uses information received over the Internet from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and their nationwide network of earthquake sensors. JMA’s computers analyze data on the first swift-traveling tremors that arrive from the epicenter of a major earthquake to predict where and with what strength the earthquake will strike.

The system can then produce a warning of a few seconds to as long as half a minute, which should be enough time to take minimum precautions to prevent serious injury, says Shinya Tsukada of the Seismological and Volcanological Department of JMA. “You can’t pack up your belongings and run away, but at least you might be able to get under the table.” In March, a JMA-hosted study group of researchers, business representatives and officials from public organizations, issued an interim report regarding the progress of such research and ways that it might be used.

Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the globe–20 percent of the world’s magnitude 6 and greater earthquakes occur here. Each year, there are more than a thousand earthquakes powerful enough to feel, and major disasters are frighteningly common. In 1995, Japan experienced its most destructive quake of the post-war period, the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake, which killed 6,435 people in and around the city of Kobe in central Japan. In October 2004, a large earthquake killed 51 people in the northern Japan prefecture of Niigata.

While virtually no part of Japan is safe from the risk of a major quake, particular attention is focused on the prospect of a major earthquake either in Tokyo, or in the Tokai area west of the capital. A recent government study simulated the consequences of a 7.3 magnitude quake under the north part of Tokyo Bay, a disaster smaller than the 1923 Tokyo earthquake that killed more than 100,000 people, but similar in size to the Kobe earthquake. The study estimated 11,000 deaths and economic damage reaching $955 billion (112 trillion yen) — 850,000 houses were destroyed outright and as many as 7 million people were forced to abandon their homes.

As researchers struggle to produce reliable results from long- and medium-term earthquake prediction systems, recent attention has concentrated on short-term warning systems such as the JMA’s. By using its own network of 200 sensor stations and several hundred set up by other research bodies, the agency can calculate the epicenter of a large quake in as little as two seconds. Although the idea of earthquake warning systems is not particularly new–there are systems in use in California and in Mexico–the system now being developed in Japan promises to be a nationwide network and make use of a range of Internet and mobile communications technology.

Since 2004, the JMA has been transmitting information about imminent earthquakes to select companies, schools and public bodies in a number of trials. A crucial factor is the distance between the epicenter of the earthquake and the area that receives the warning, said Tsukada. “In a really big earthquake, the system may not be useful for people directly above the epicenter, but it may help people further away.”

That principle was clearly demonstrated by two major earthquakes that occurred after the JMA started testing their system. In October 2004, the Niigata area of central Japan was hit by a 6.8-magnitude earthquake. Although the JMA’s system pinpointed the earthquake within seconds, the worst-hit areas were directly above the epicenter, and there was no time to issue a warning. Then, in August of last year, an earthquake hit the northern Japanese prefecture of Miyagi. This time, because the epicenter was 60 miles away in the ocean, the system was able to provide a 16-second warning before tremors reached the heavily populated city of Sendai. The earthquake measured an upper-5 on the Japanese scale of earthquake intensity in Sendai, enough to topple furniture and cause moderate damage to buildings.

“People’s attitudes changed completely after the Miyagi earthquake,” said Tsukada. “They realized that we can really use this technology.” In Tokyo at the time, Tsukada received an automatic cell phone text-message from the system when the earthquake was detected, and then felt the weakened tremors a minute later.

Yukio Fujinawa is the managing director of Real-Time Earthquake Information Consortium (REIC), an NGO that is looking at how information from the JMA’s warning system can be put to practical use. “There are two basic uses for the information,” he said, “one is to stop machines, etc., the other is to warn people.”

Setting up automatic systems to stop assembly lines, halt elevators or alert doctors about to start medical operations, is relatively simple, he said. Reaching a consensus on the second use, how or whether to alert the general public is more difficult. One problem is false alarms; out of 400 alerts since the testing began two years ago, approximately 30 have been mistakes. Another is the possibility of panic. REIC’s Fujinawa suggests a solution could be to introduce the technology gradually. He proposes installing systems in schools and teaching children how to respond to the warnings from a young age. REIC estimates the cost at around $17,000 (2 million yen) for each of Japan’s 55,000 elementary and middle schools.

Warnings might also be issued through the media, much the same way that earthquake reports are broadcast at present. Every year, an automated system passes reports of 200 to 300 earthquakes to the Japanese media, and they are normally broadcast within 2 minutes of the earthquake occurring. Alternatively, Japan’s extensive network of public announcement speaker systems could be put to use. According to REIC, two-thirds of local governments already have suitable systems in place.

One company, the Tokyo start-up 3Soft Ltd., is now developing the world’s first portable home earthquake warning system. They have named it “Digital Catfish,” after the catfish’s legendary tendency to show strange behavior immediately before earthquakes. The PDA-sized receiver picks up wireless earthquake warning transmissions and relays them to smaller speakers placed around a home, or to other safety devices such as those in the JEITA show-house. 3Soft officials hope to price a home-use system at less than $850 (100,000 yen), although they say it is unlikely that the government will allow individual households to buy the product in the near future.

“It’s still not clear whether or not the average household will be able to use our device,” said CEO Hiroyuki Iue, adding that their first customers will probably be businesses or public organizations. Beginning in June, organizations will start applying to the JMA for permission to use the earthquake warning data. 3Soft hopes to start selling the device later this year.

Researchers are also looking at how mobile technology could be used to transmit earthquake warnings. Cell phones already play an important role in the immediate aftermath of earthquakes — though not without problems. “When an earthquake happens cell phones become difficult to use,” said Akira Matsuki, a senior manager at Japanese carrier NTT DoCoMo. “In previous large earthquakes the usage has exceeded capacity by several times to tens of times.” Setting up cell phone capacity to cope with the spikes in usage following a major earthquake or other disaster is prohibitively expensive. Instead, Japan’s major carriers have set up mobile-Internet bulletin board systems to let users leave messages that can be accessed by concerned friends and relatives.

“No matter where you are, if you have a mobile [phone], even though there may be restrictions on voice calls, you still have access to the Internet,” said Matthew Nicholson, Media Relations manager at Vodafone K.K. The systems also link to each other so that messages can be picked up across different carriers. Vodafone’s system has been put into action four times since it was initiated in April last year. Following the Miyagi earthquake in August, 23,000 people checked messages on the site.

A long-term, and somewhat more difficult challenge, is to enable cell phones to relay JMA earthquake warning messages. According to NTT DoCoMo’s Matsuki, developing such a system could both help convey warnings of a coming quake and help cope with the flood of messages afterwards. “We are examining using existing mobile phone technology to send large numbers of messages to users simultaneously,” said Matsuki.

Although he said he couldn’t divulge details of the research, Matsuki noted that a system is unlikely to use present e-mail messages, which take too long to open and read. He also pointed to the need for a standardized system across carriers, and careful consideration of the consequences of the technology. For instance, what would happen if drivers on a freeway decided to stop suddenly when they received an earthquake warning?

The government’s study group on the emergency warning system is due to produce its final report some time between September and December this year. The report is expected to include a road map for implementing earthquake-warning technology. But until consensus is reached on how exactly to use the information, however, it looks like the warning service will only be available to select groups chosen by the authorities. Debate among study group members continues. According to participants, some have raised the question of whether it is fair only to provide warnings of impending catastrophes to those who pay, others have questioned the responsibility of issuing warnings that might be false alarms or could potentially cause mass panic.

“The technology is ready,” said the JMA’s Tsukada. “The argument now is about how to give the information to the public.”